Truce in Donbass: in search of a compromise

Ukraine: DPR announces ceasefire in Donbass

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the need to sign a ceasefire in Donbass from July 27 within the framework of the Normandy Four

KIEV – The ceasefire agreement reached at the talks in Minsk is to be signed by representatives of the Normandy Four. This was stated by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commenting on the talks held in Minsk in the format of a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG).

“We really have a lot of professionals who are in constant negotiations in the format of the TCG meeting and who have agreed on a very serious step for our entire country – a sustainable ceasefire. This document is now awaiting signature by all parties to the Normandy Group. I believe that all parties – Ukraine, France, Germany and the Russian Federation – will sign, and from the 27th, I believe that the moment may come when there will be a stable ceasefire, “Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 23 July in a press meeting at the checkpoint. Stanitsa Luganskaya “as part of a working trip to Donbass.

The President noted that the agreement will be signed by the leaders of the Normandy Four countries, which increases the status of these agreements, his press service reported..

The details of the agreements reached on a sustainable ceasefire on the contact line in Donbass, according to the leader of Ukraine, will be separately worked out within the framework of the Minsk format.

“This is a generalized statement, in detail on this statement, we should simply go in the Minsk format – this is the agreement. In the Minsk format, everything should be written out in detail: each person who is responsible, when, how this information is transmitted. That is, it will be a separate story, it is very long, “- said the head of the Ukrainian state..

Regional media quotes the President of Ukraine, who announced the desire to “decipher each point in Minsk”.

“Then we will see: we are able to accomplish this, we are not able, how we will do it, who will be responsible,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed..

He confirmed that Ukraine is fulfilling its part of the obligations under the Minsk agreements and “the whole world sees it.”.

In turn, the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov noted the absence of the need to decipher in detail each point of the agreement.

“It’s hard to say what can be deciphered there, because everything is written quite simply, the document contains exhaustive wording,” Dmitry Peskov said. He added that international contacts on this topic will continue..

On the armistice in Donbass from July 27

Based on the results of the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on July 22 in the format of a videoconference, it was decided that from 00:01 on July 27, 2020, the regime of a complete and comprehensive ceasefire must be observed..

“Within the political group, it was noted that a complete and comprehensive ceasefire is a basic precondition for a political settlement. After all, elections in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine are possible only under the following conditions, “the message says..

Among the conditions that the parties need to fulfill in order to hold elections in the occupied territories: to carry out a comprehensive de-escalation, to ensure the withdrawal of foreign military units and equipment, to disarm illegal armed groups, to ensure the restoration of control by the Ukrainian government over the Ukrainian-Russian border..

The message emphasizes that the elections should be held exclusively in accordance with the legislation of Ukraine, in compliance with the OSCE Copenhagen standards..

Truce – last or next?

Political scientist Oleg Lisny notes that the Ukrainian military will comply with the ceasefire order – whether they like it or not, unlike Russia, which has repeatedly disrupted the process of stopping fire.

“This is the question – will the other side adhere to the agreements? There is no certainty about that. It is difficult to say how many “truces” have already been broken by the separatists, and now there is no certainty that Russia really wants a truce, ”Oleg Lisnyy tells the Voice of America correspondent.

A number of killings of military personnel on the contact line in recent months, and especially of military doctors in Donbass, he associates with the Kremlin’s desire to influence the situation inside Ukraine.

“If there is a feeling that Russia would like to hit Zelensky as much as possible – there are constant shelling, the war does not stop, the Kremlin insists on the implementation of the political part of the Minsk agreements. At the same time, the Ukrainian subgroup at the talks in Minsk adheres to the strategy that the political part cannot come before a persistent truce and ceasefire, “Oleg Lisnyy notes..

The political scientist calls Ukraine a serious argument to offer Russia to sign a document on ensuring an armistice in the “Normandy format”.

“In the meantime, we see the strategic goal of Russia – not to make concessions and not to implement the humanitarian aspects of the ceasefire in Donbass, to stop the killing of Ukrainian soldiers,” says Oleg Lisny.

On compromises to resolve the conflict

According to the political scientist Alexey Yakubin, the actions of official Kiev in the Minsk process indicate a readiness to negotiate and, with a certain compromise, to promote a settlement in Donbass.

“Key for Zelensky and for the authorities are the Minsk agreements. This is a priority and they are ready to negotiate. This truce is not the first, but if you carefully read a number of conditions, we managed to agree – not to use drones, aircraft, there should be no snipers, military equipment from residential areas was withdrawn, the role of the JCCC was strengthened, and disciplinary responsibility was introduced. Kiev is trying to show that negotiations can be conducted and a compromise can be reached, “Aleksey Yakubin says to the Voice of America Russian Service..

Truce in Donbass: in search of a compromise

Now, according to him, it is important for Ukraine to understand whether Russia is ready to make compromises, to move forward on issues of de-escalation, to demonstrate that there is “no dead end” in this movement.

“There is a discussion about decentralization, and on the part of Kiev there is a negotiating position that we do not abandon certain nuances associated with a special status, but let’s think about decentralization for the whole country and transfer of rights for regions, not only in Donbass. This is if we are talking about amending the Constitution, “- says Alexei Yakubin.

The political scientist emphasizes that Kiev would like to hear about the strengthening of the role and mission of the Red Cross in the processes of the release of detainees, including in the uncontrolled territories..

Truce – 21st

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik notes on his Facebook page that “the 21st (according to calculations) truce in Donbass, which may come from Monday, July 27, is still good, because it will probably save someone’s lives.”.

“But without a mechanism for its observance, it will end in the same way as the previous twenty,” emphasizes Ruslan Bortnik.

He believes that there are objective factors that affect the implementation of processes such as a truce..

“The parties are not able to ensure an absolute ceasefire and control over this even if they wish, due to the presence of a significant number of supporters of the“ war to the end ”, factors of smuggling and external influences. The soldiers, unfortunately, will also continue to die due to the detonation of mine devices, injuries and incidents, ”notes Ruslan Bortnik.

He calls a realistic task the opportunity to “achieve positive dynamics in reducing the number of shelling”.

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